Club World Cup: Messi, Mbappe, Haaland and Palmer set to star in revamped tournament

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A long domestic season has come to an end, but the new revamped FIFA Club World Cup offers an exciting interlude.

Over the next month, 32 teams from across six football federations will compete to get their hands on the new trophy.

UEFA teams have dominated under the previous annual format and this year the favourites all hail from Europe once again as the top teams aim to put their best foot forward.

But Brazilian clubs have often thrown a spanner in the works, and with four competitors in the mix, they could spring a surprise.

They will not be the only ones aiming to cause an upset either, with the likes of Al Ahly, Al-Hilal, Inter Miami and Los Angeles FC also among those global teams attempting to shake up the established order that has settled over many years.

So, who are the favourites, and which underdogs could provide the biggest threat in the United States? We look ahead to the tournament with all the best Opta statistics and the supercomputer’s predictions.

What’s expected?

Over the previous editions of the tournament, European clubs consistently came to the fore, with clubs from UEFA lifting the trophy more than any other confederation.

And no difference is expected this time around, as only 10 teams have more than a 1% chance of taking home the trophy on July 13, with all of those coming from Europe.

Recent Champions League winners Paris Saint-Germain, who also won Ligue 1 and the Coupe de , go in as favourites to take the trophy on their first appearance, with the Opta supercomputer giving them an 18.5% chance.

Manchester City, CWC winners in 2023, are predicted to be their closest challengers, with a 17.2% likelihood of winning the title.

So, it is no surprise that those teams are the most likely teams to reach the final too, with PSG’s hopes of another showpiece appearance sitting at 30.9% to City’s 29.5%.

Two-time CWC champions Bayern Munich (12.7%) and Inter (12.3%), who were well-beaten Champions League finalists in May, are the other teams seen as right in the mix with a higher than 10% chance of getting their hands on the trophy.

And only just behind them, rounding out the top five, are Real Madrid (9.8%), who are the most decorated club in the competition’s history with five titles. Los Blancos finished the season without a domestic trophy, but did clinch the UEFA Super Cup and Intercontinental Cup in 2024-25.

Chelsea (8.2%), Atletico Madrid (5.5%), Borussia Dortmund (5.4%), Juventus (3.6%) and Benfica (3.6%) are all in with a chance too, even if they are ranked below the top favourites.

Palmeiras, Al-Hilal and Flamengo are also in with a strong chance to make it past the group stage, and though their chances of claiming the trophy hover around 0.3%, the knockout rounds are known for their unpredictability.

Can European clubs remain top dogs?

UEFA has the most representatives at this year’s FIFA Club World Cup, with 12 clubs, meaning the probability of one of them claiming the trophy is heavily in their favour.

In fact, 17 of the previous 18 CWC tournaments were won by clubs from UEFA, with Madrid the most successful, claiming their titles in 2014, 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2022 – as well as this season claiming silverware in the Intercontinental Cup, FIFA’s replacement annual competition to the old CWC.

In fact, Madrid have only failed to win one of their previous appearances in the competition, finishing fourth in the inaugural competition in 2000.

Only three other teams have won the competition more than once, but only Bayern (two titles) are competing in this year’s edition, with Barcelona (three-time winners) and Corinthians (twice) not involved.

Spanish teams won 43% of CWC tournaments played under the previous format (nine out of 21), and Madrid will have their eye on capping Xabi Alonso’s debut tournament in the dugout with a win.

Having replaced Carlo Ancelotti, who won 15 trophies with Madrid, at the end of the 2024-25 LaLiga season, Alonso has big shoes to fill, though with his team of Galacticos, which includes the newly signed Trent Alexander-Arnold, they are expected to go far.

Alonso left Bayer Leverkusen with a 63% win ratio in all competitions (having won 148 of 235 games in charge), leading the team through an unbeaten domestic campaign in 2023-24.

Madrid have a favourable group which includes Pachuca and Red Bull Salzburg. Their biggest test could come against Al-Hilal, whom they face in their opener.

But Alonso and Madrid will face stiff competition, with Pep Guardiola, who won all eight of his CWC matches as manager, keen to finish City’s underwhelming campaign with a trophy.

City did not lift any of the four major trophies on offer for the first time since 2016-17, Guardiola’s first campaign in charge.

In fact, Guardiola saw a team he has managed finish outside the top two (third) for only the second time in his 16 seasons as a top-flight manager.

However, City were building up momentum during the end of the season, going on a 10-match unbeaten streak (W7 D3) towards the end of 2024-25, though they did lose the FA Cup final to Crystal Palace after that stretch.

They are given a 97.2% chance of making it through to the last 16, the highest chance of any team, with Juventus seen as the only threats in their group, which also includes Al Ain and Wydad.

Of the qualified teams, eight have never featured in the previous format of the CWC: Atletico, Benfica, Dortmund, Juventus, PSG, Porto and Salzburg from UEFA, while Inter Miami are the only non-European debutants.

And PSG will be confident of success, even with them having to negotiate a crunch opening match against Atletico.

Their 5-0 win over Inter was the biggest margin of victory in a European Cup/Champions League final, completing a coveted treble and becoming the first French side to do so.

It may have taken them 168 games to finally get their hands on the trophy, but Luis Enrique has previous CWC experience, winning it in 2015 with Barcelona, and he has already voiced his desire to put the “cherry on the cake” with more success here.

Brazil’s quadruple threat

Brazil are the most-represented country at this year’s CWC, with four teams in Flamengo, Fluminense, Botafogo and Palmeiras all qualifying as continental champions.

Additionally, Brazil are the only country from outside Europe to boast clubs with a CWC trophy in Corinthians (2000, 2012), Sao Paulo (2005) and Internacional (2006).

In fact, the last time a team from outside Europe won the trophy under the previous format was in 2012, when Corinthians beat Chelsea 1-0.

Brazilian teams do have a knack for showing up in the final, competing in four of the previous eight, with Fluminense finishing as runners-up to Man City in the 2023 CWC final.

Palmeiras (2021) and Flamengo (2019) have also featured in the showpiece match during that run and are both seen as more likely than not to make it through to the knockouts.

The outside bets

All of the teams outside of Europe are given a less than 1% chance of winning the CWC, but that does not mean they will not be in the latter stages.

Al-Hilal, 2021 AFC Champions League winners, are given a 51% chance of making it through to the last 16, with Argentina’s River Plate (49%) and Miami (47%), spearheaded by Lionel Messi, also in with a strong chance to reach that stage.

Porto are narrow favourites to win Group A at 33.7%, but Miami (22.4%), Al Ahly (18.3%) and Palmeiras (25.6%) are right in the mix too, so everything is to play for.

Messi is no stranger to the CWC, having won it three times with Barcelona (2009, 2011, 2015), and as the ‘host’ city, Miami will have high hopes for their first taste of the competition.

They will be kicking off the tournament in the opening match against Al Ahly on Saturday, record 12-time champions of the CAF Champions League, and it will not be an easy fixture, with the Egyptian side having made the second-most appearances in the CWC.

Al Ahly are second only to Auckland City, the OFC’s sole representative, who made 12 appearances under the previous format. However, the New Zealand club come in as huge underdogs, having lost 13 of their 18 matches in the competition (W3 D2), and are given just a 0.1% chance of getting out of Group C.

Auckland face Bayern in their opener, which is not a good omen, as the German side have a 100% record at the CWC with four match wins out of four, and they won the Bundesliga back this season helped by the goals of Harry Kane.

The stars of the show

Lionel Messi – Inter Miami

It will come as no surprise that Messi is the star billing, especially after long-time rival Cristiano Ronaldo, after much speculation, announced he will not be completing a move from Al-Nassr to a participating club that would have allowed him to compete.

Messi will be playing in his fourth CWC. He won the trophy in all three of his previous participations, scoring five goals in as many matches with Barcelona.

He arrives in form, already with 15 goal involvements in MLS so far this year (10 goals, five assists), the most of any player in the league. Against Columbus Crew before the break, he scored twice and assisted two goals, the 13th time in his career he has done so. Expect Messi to make an impact one year out from Argentina bidding to defend their World Cup crown.

Kylian Mbappe – Real Madrid

A rampant Kylian Mbappe scored 31 goals in 34 games in LaLiga 2024-25; in the history of the competition, only Pruden Sanchez with Atletico in 1940-41 (33) and Ronaldo Nazario with Barcelona in 1996-97 (34) have ever scored more goals in their first season.

Mbappe’s tally of 43 goals in all competitions is the record for a Madrid player in their first season at the club, with two of those goals coming in the Super Cup and FIFA Intercontinental Cup finals.

He finished the season in magnificent form and will hope to carry that into this tournament to help the Alonso era make an impressive start.

Erling Haaland – Manchester City

Erling Haaland had the best minutes per goal average of any Premier League striker (min. 20 goals scored) in all competitions this season (122).

Three goals in the USA would see Haaland (121) match Sergio Aguero (124) as the leading scorer for Man City in all competitions in the Guardiola era.

Salem Al Dawsari – Al-Hilal

Under the previous format, no player was involved in more goals than Salem Al Dawsari from 2019 onwards. He had four goals and two assists in nine matches, putting Al Dawsari t top with Madrid’s Vinicius Junior.

He ended the Saudi Pro League season with 30 goal involvements for Al-Hilal (15 goals, 15 assists), outdoing Ronaldo by two and matching Karim Benzema’s haul for Al-Ittihad, and is one of many stars in the Al-Hilal line-up.

Cole Palmer – Chelsea

In the Conference League final, Cole Palmer became the first player to assist twice in a major European showpiece since Marcelo for Madrid against Liverpool in the 2017-18 Champions League.

Palmer created 97 chances in all competitions this season, 33 more than any other Chelsea player (Pedro Neto – 64). After losing some momentum in the second half of the campaign, the CWC offers the England international a chance to recapture his best form.

Hussein El Shahat – Al Ahly

And a special mention for Hussein El Shahat, who holds the record for most matches played under the previous format of the CWC (17), making 13 of those for Al Ahly, and the other four for Al Ain.