The Numbers Game: Man Utd and Spurs battle to save their seasons

Two teams placed 16th and 17th in the Premier League going up against each other in May is not an encounter that often piques much interest.

But Wednesday’s Europa League final at Athletic Bilbao’s iconic San Mames Stadium has taken on extraordinary importance for both Tottenham and Manchester United.

Having not lifted a trophy of any kind since Juande Ramos oversaw their victory over Chelsea in the 2008 EFL Cup final, Spurs are desperate for silverware.

Ange Postecoglou has cut a thorny figure for much of the season, and his future remains far from certain, but ending Tottenham’s drought would make it all worthwhile for the Australian, who told reporters in September: “I always win things in my second year”.

Ruben Amorim has been less bullish, describing his United team as the worst side in the club’s storied history.

Wednesday’s victors will seal Champions League qualification for 2025-26, with the financial rewards giving Amorim the chance to turbo-boost his United rebuild.

The losers will be left to face the uncomfortable reality of having endured their worst campaign in modern history.

Here, we delve into the best Opta insights ahead of the Europa League final.

What’s expected?

This will be the sixth all-English final in the history of UEFA club competitions, with no other country providing as many finals between two of their clubs (Italy and Spain have had five apiece).

It will be the third of those to involve Tottenham, who beat Wolves 3-2 on aggregate in the 1972 UEFA Cup final and lost 2-0 to Liverpool in the 2019 Champions League showpiece.

And since the Europa League’s 2009 rebrand, this will be the fourth final to be contested between two sides from the same nation, after 2011 (Porto 1-0 Braga), 2012 (Atletico Madrid 3-0 Athletic) and 2019 (Chelsea 4-1 Arsenal).

Tottenham have won all three of their meetings with United in all competitions so far this season; twice in the Premier League (3-0 away, 1-0 home) and once in the EFL Cup (4-3 at home).

The only opponent Spurs have ever won four games against in a single campaign were Manchester City in 1992-93, while the only side to beat the Red Devils four times in a single season were Everton in 1985-86.

United are also winless in their last six meetings with Tottenham in all competitions (two draws, four defeats). The Red Devils have never gone seven without a win against Spurs before.

However, a more positive omen could be that the teams have only met once previously in major European competition, in the 1963-64 Cup Winners’ Cup last 16. United progressed 4-3 on aggregate over two legs under Matt Busby.

Many expect a close-run final, and the Opta supercomputer cannot split the teams.

Indeed, both Spurs and United lift the trophy in 50% of pre-match simulations apiece.

Spurs win in 90 minutes in 37.5% of scenarios, with United doing so in 35.2% and the remaining 27.3% going to extra time, and possibly penalties.

Despite the poor league form of both of these teams, an end-to-end final could be on the cards.

Only Athletic (30) have had more shots following high turnovers than both United (23) and Tottenham (22) in this season’s Europa League, and the Red Devils are also t-top in the 2024-25 tournament for direct attacks (32, level with Lyon).

Can Spurs end their long wait?

By the time Wednesday rolls around, it will have been 17 years and 86 days since Spurs last got their hands on silverware by winning the EFL Cup. Their last major European title, meanwhile, was delivered by manager Keith Burkinshaw in the 1983-84 UEFA Cup, 40 years and 363 days ago.

Victory here would make them just the second English club to win the UEFA Cup/Europa League three times, after Liverpool. Meanwhile, only Sevilla (seven) have won it more than three times.

However, they will have to overcome a host of injury problems if they are to end their long wait for glory, having lost creative midfielders Dejan Kulusevski, James Maddison and Lucas Bergvall.

Kulusevski (11) and Maddison (10) are two of three Spurs players in double figures for assists in all competitions this season, along with Son Heung-min (11).

Spurs in Bilbao